In are Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland, Mason Plumlee, and Russell Westbrook. Odds via Caesars, updated in real-time. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +10000 ET): Led by Mobley and center Jarrett Allen, the Cavs' biggest strengths -- their defense and front court -- will be tested in each meeting with the Sixers and Embiid. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Perhaps the most interesting move is the Atlanta Hawks, who have moved closer to the top of the table despite firing their coach this month. Washington has won three of its past five but is still waiting for Kristaps Porzingis to make his Wizards debut since he was traded to the team on Feb. 10. The Easts current fifth-place team is available at an astonishing +15000 in the championship odds table and +5000 in the Eastern Conference market. NBA Predictions (26). For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of The NBA. They estimate their chances of winning the title as 21%. The Clippers arent the only team in town that made moves. Neil Paine is the acting sports editor at FiveThirtyEight. RAPTOR cant factor in the likelihood of some of those players, ya know, not being on the team at some point. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +1500 With Butler leading the way, and Adebayo, Kyle Lowry and P.J. Eleven teams have at least a 2 percent chance to win the title, according to FiveThirtyEight's projection system. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +1100 The Bucks overtook the Celtics for the Easts top spot, despite three-time All-Star Khris Middleton playing just 20 games and still rounding into form. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: It came about two hours before the Feb. 10 trade deadline, when the 76ers and Nets completed the Ben Simmons-James Harden swap. Jrue Holiday (finally) was an All-Star again and Brook Lopez is aging like Benjamin Button. Doncics numbers will take a hit, but his squads ceiling is so, so much higher now. How quickly they can get on the floor, get up to speed and revive a struggling defense could make the difference. While many teams likely still think they're in contention, eight teams are at +1600 or better to . Rough scene. The Nugs have the third-best odds to win the NBA championship, but there is still value in backing them. It would have been impossible to know at the time, but that win jump-started Toronto's season. Must-see game left on the schedule: Nets at 76ers, March 10 (7:30 p.m. Denver and Phoenix might be the favorites in the West, but expect resistance from the City of Angels. Well see if the signing works out, but color me skeptical. Playoff and title projections: The Hawks odds themselves have collapsed, dropping from +8000 a month ago to +15000 after the coaching change. They lost both Lonzo Ball and Caruso to extended injuries during a one-week span, but both players along with second-year forward Patrick Williams, who hasn't played since October, are eyeing returns in mid-March. With five teams within 2.5 games of first place in the conference, and just six games separating sixth through 11th place, teams will be swapping spots in the standings on a nightly basis. This is not to say there arent any measurable factors breaking in Golden States favor with this matchup. In five of the previous seven seasons, the eventual title winner came from the group of teams with 5 percent odds or better, so theres a decent chance we will be crowning one of those aforementioned squads next June though that doesnt narrow things down very much. As a result, bettors have become more comfortable buying Sacramento positions. With Simmons missing all season, the 76ers have overachieved thanks to what has been the best season of Embiid's career. Much of the expected improvement (relative to last years forecast, at least) is due to Stephen Currys continued excellence (hes projected for the sixth-best total RAPTOR in the league this season), but we can also attribute some to Andrew Wigginss improvement, Klay Thompsons better-than-could-have-reasonably-been-expected return from two major injuries and the emergence of Jordan Poole as a sixth starter-quality (or better) player. Simmons didn't want to play for the Sixers anymore and will hear it from the Philadelphia crowd. They'll need a healthy Porzingis down the stretch. The Mavs have hovered around the fringe-playoff territory for most of the year but have kicked it up a notch and are now sixth in the West. (Right now, we are projecting him outside of the rotation with no real replacement and the minutes being redistributed among players like Landry Shamet, Cameron Payne, Timoth Luwawu-Cabarrot, Josh Okogie and Damion Lee.) A big part of that resurgence has also been the play of Kawhi Leonard, who is once again reminding the league that he is one of the best players of this generation when at the top of his game. Although Boston dropped its final game before the All-Star break, it's been a banner few weeks for the franchise, which has won 11 of its last 13 games and outscored teams by more than 250 points during that span. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 0.9%. Randle played at an All-Star level throughout last season but has been unable to replicate it. Before the Irving trade, sportsbooks had Dallas anywhere from +2500 to +3300 to win the NBA title. The Warriors do have more postseason experience, an important factor when looking at historical Finals success. One surprise team that fits the bill is the Cleveland Cavaliers, who elected to make no moves at the deadline. You can view updated NBA championship odds and more online sports betting opportunities at the BetMGM online sportsbook. All rights reserved. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. This year, however, there are 11(!) The Knicks came into the break having lost 13 of their last 16 games. If it doesn't, it will be very difficult for Brooklyn to reach its ultimate goal given Irving can only play in away games. But bettors may not mind the coaching shuffle. Will Irving be able to play at the Garden by then? Steph Curry has only played in 38 games and is currently out of the lineup with multiple leg injuries. Must-see game left on the schedule: Nets at 76ers, March 10 (7:30 p.m. will be almost everything for L.A. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have been in and out of the lineup. A . Marc Finn and Andres Waters contributed research. They won six of their past seven and had found a strong rhythm playing behind Jimmy Butler and a solid core of guys who play just like him. Dallas is currently +1600 to win the championship a significant upgrade from +2500, where they were before the trade. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. Today, they are +450. Ormaybe youre set on the Warriors. If youre a first-time NBA bettor, dont sweat it. After all, the last time Atlanta fired its coach in the middle of the season, it went to the Eastern Conference Finals. Tucker, but Phillys bench and Rivers deployment of that bench remains suspect. These are all questions that hover over the final cross-town game of the season. And with that being said, Golden State would also have homecourt advantage over either the Heat and Celtics should the team advance. FiveThirtyEights 2022 NBA Finals prediction has Golden State with just a seven percent chance to win it all. Theres likely nobody that misses Adams more than All-Star Ja Morant. There isn't a more anticipated game the rest of this regular season across the NBA. The team has desperately missed Steven Adams, whos been out since Jan. 22 with a PCL sprain. Marc Finn and Andres Waters contributed research. It freed up minutes on the wing and gave the Hawks a pick to potentially use down the road to continue to build the roster. At the moment, Dallas is priced identically to Golden State and Memphis in both the Western Conference odds (+800) and the overall championship odds (+1600) markets. Playoff and title projections: Game metrics are on a 0-100 scale. James and Davis are also projected for slightly worse RAPTOR outputs this year than in previous seasons due to age (James) and chronic injury risk (Davis). Design and development by Jay Boice. Pivot point for the rest of the season: How will Harden fit? The site is not associated with nor is it endorsed by any professional or collegiate league, association or team. Milwaukee Bucks (72) Jared Dubin is a New York writer and lawyer. Philadelphia 76ers (+750 . Phoenix still projects to have one of the NBAs best starting fives, but the bench appears a bit lacking right now even with the return of Dario ari. Boston Celtics (87) The Nets were 8-to-1 to win the title at the end of January; now, theyre 150-to-1. The NBA's Eastern Conference is deeper than it has been in decades, setting up what should be a wild sprint to the playoffs over the final seven weeks of the 2021-22 NBA regular season. Donis closest comparables for this season include 2003 Tracy McGrady, 2009 LeBron James and 2002 Kobe Bryant, among others. The Kings have moved up 12 spots in the table since the beginning of the season and two from a month ago. You make a bet like this far off in advance of the event, in this case, the team to win the championship. His 27.5 points per game in February ranks eighth among all players. Los Angeles Lakers (95) FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 13%. Still, the Grizzlies are a deep squad. Denver also added Thomas Bryant to fix their backup center issues and plucked Reggie Jackson off the buyout market though the early returns on those additions havent been as promising. The Nets had all kinds of drama surrounding them heading into the break after trading Harden -- and enduring an 11-game losing streak -- but they finally appeared to turn things around as they headed into the break having won two of three, which included a 28-point come-from-behind win against the Knicks. Troy Brown Jr. who started in place of LeBron finished with 2 points on 1-of-7 shooting, and 0-of-4 from beyond the arc. Washington did try to address its chemistry issues and loosen the logjam of minutes and roles by trading away Harrell, Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. The 76ers had a wild final few days before the All-Star break. Golden State fares much better in this years forecast than it did a year ago, when it was rather infamously predicted to miss the playoffs altogether. Sign up now to unlock everything ESPN+ has to offer. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: The immediate impact rookie Evan Mobley made upon arrival in Cleveland is the biggest reason the Cavs have transformed into a contender. (Im personally higher than our player projections are on Kuminga.). More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team, How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Well begin with the West, home of the defending champs. So yes, a pretty good case exists that splashy deadline trades often arent the best way to win a championship. A teams full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. ET, TNT): If Simmons is ready to play, this is arguably the most interesting game left on the NBA's regular-season calendar. ET, NBA TV): This game could be a preview of what's coming at some point in May. The expectations were high after the Knicks surprised the league and vaulted to the fourth seed in the East last year, but they have come crashing down to earth in a season filled with inconsistency -- especially on the defensive end. RAPTOR foresees the Timberwolves leaping out of the play-in to grab the No. The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Preseason predicted standings for the NBAs 2022-23 Eastern Conference, according to FiveThirtyEights RAPTOR-based forecast. The forecast foresees a changing of the guard at the top of the conference as well, with the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Mavericks projecting as the only teams with 50-plus wins. Ahead of todays Game 1 of the NBA Finals, lets get one thing out of the way: Our forecast model loves, loves, loves the Boston Celtics. (Or maybe it just hates the Golden State Warriors.) Sacramento has been on a slow rise throughout the season, with the Kings now available in the championship market at 100-to-1. As of February 21, about 14% of all Western Conference champion tickets at BetMGM were backing Phoenix; 10% of all NBA championship tickets were also on the Suns. * 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). Caesars title odds: +50000 Were still early enough in the season for some solid value picks. If you are having difficulty accessing any content on this website, please visit our Accessibility page. If so, the Nets are too good to be just a 45-win team. Even that might be a tad on the high side, but given how much evidence there is that Boston is better than Golden State on a neutral court, its not exactly unreasonable that the Celtics are favored here. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country. As a result, bettors have become more comfortable buying Sacramento positions. Weighted by the minutes played in the 2022 playoffs, the average Golden State player had 2,031 previous career postseason minutes, second among playoff teams behind only the Brooklyn Nets.1 But Boston ranks fourth in that metric among playoff teams, with an average of 1,573 previous playoff minutes, so its not exactly a landslide edge for the Warriors. teams in that category: the defending champion Golden State Warriors, the reigning Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics and (in alphabetical order) the Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors. The Sixers might have found their answer at backup center in the rugged P.J. One thing to watch: Boston's 3-point shooting. Naturally, those acquisitions created a torrent of new betting action in Dallas and Phoenix, reshaping the balance of power in the West. RAPTOR (57) Boston shrugged off all the noise and came out of the gates playing fantastic basketball. The addition of Irving has given Dallas an elite second-scoring option behind Luka Doncic. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Harrell has averaged 17.8 points and 7.5 rebounds on 65.1% shooting since being acquired at the deadline. Naturally, those acquisitions created a torrent of new betting action in Dallas and Phoenix, reshaping the balance of power in the West. Start with this eyebrow-raising fact: the FiveThirtyEight model has the Boston Celtics as the NBA championship favorites. The Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns are in second with a 17%. The odds, provided by our partner, PointsBet, also like Golden States chances of defeating the Mavericks in the West finals more so than FiveThirtyEight, with the Warriors listed as heavy favorites at -225. When we last saw them Toronto dropped two of its final three games before the break but has gone 18-8 since Dec. 31, revitalizing its season and going from a team hoping to get into the play-in tournament to one hoping to avoid it by finishing among the top six in the East. Values and rankings in key statistical categories for the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors during the 2021-22 NBA playoffs. Memphis has dropped five of eight during that time. It appears the key to Bostons quest to a title is simply health. The Cavs dropped their final two games entering the break, but it hardly slowed the momentum for the biggest surprise contender in the conference. Next, we should note that RAPTOR cannot exactly predict the degree to which a team will attempt to tank this season. If youre hunting for long shots, theres plenty of interesting shuffling happening in the middle of the table. Health is going to be huge for Phoenix. It should be a heck of a lot of fun to see how the East playoff picture shakes out. Denver and Phoenix might be the favorites in the West, but expect resistance from the City of Angels. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +300 This year, the forecast sees basically the same thing happening. . The New York Knicks are also moving up the table, though the numbers are still pretty long. Calling a timeout in crunch-time when your team doesnt have one? The Nets are still confident they can contend for a title this season, but the trade changed the team's course in the middle of a trying season in which they are still dealing with Durant's knee injury and Irving's part-time status. Nikola Jokic is the favorite to capture his third straight MVP award and the rest of the roster is healthy for the first time in forever, setting up what should be a deep playoff run for Denver. 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